The Padres are in the midst of a very disappointing season, but they still have a shot at grabbing a playoff spot.
The San Diego Padres rank third in MLB payroll, but their record doesn’t show it. They’re fourth in the NL West and six games back from the third Wild Card spot. It’s certainly not the season many analysts and Padres fans were predicting.
In a first half with many underperformers, the Padres could see themselves missing the postseason altogether.
Big Budget Offense, Low Budget Performances
The Padres have shelled out large paychecks for numerous offensive players. So far, it would be hard to tell this lineup is well paid.
The offense is not even top 10 in almost every important statistic, including AVG, OBP, SLG, RBIs, HRs, runs, or hits.
With only four players taking up $73.25 million in payroll, the poor output has left Padres fans confused and frustrated. There are a few specific players who contribute to the lack of production the most.
This offseason, 3B Manny Machado inked a new 11-year, $350 million contract to keep him in San Diego until he’s 41. Although he just won Player of the Week for the NL, no one can ignore that he struggled until then.
From April to June, he slashed .242/.287/.396 equating to an OPS of .682, which is what you might expect of someone coming off the bench. What was most concerning were his at-bats against right-handed pitchers. He had a batting average of .191 accompanied by an OPS of .562, which raised many red flags especially after signing a new deal just months prior.
Although we are just eight games into July, the month is treating Machado extremely well. His batting average sits at .406 with an OPS of 1.472, including six home runs.
Another big contract taking a dip in production is SS Xander Bogaerts, who signed an 11-year, $280 million contract this offseason. It was a hot start for Bogaerts, who set a franchise record reaching base safely in his first 30 games to start a season.
May and June, though, did not treat Bogaerts very well. He averaged just .229 and had an OPS of .618, which is well below the league average.
Through the full season, he has an OPS of only .731, which doesn’t exactly live up to the price tag.
Pitching Keeping the Padres Afloat
If there’s one thing Padres fans have been able to keep a positive outlook on, it’s the pitching. Through the All-Star break, they rank sixth in ERA as a team, third in hits, fourth in runs, sixth in WHIP, and fifth in AVG.
Although the starting pitching has gone above and beyond, the bullpen’s effort cannot be ignored. As a unit they rank in the top 10 for hits, earned runs, and WHIP.
One of the most notable contributors has been RP Tom Cosgrove. On July 6, Cosgrove completed his 13th scoreless inning of the year to set a new franchise record.
In his 22 innings pitched, he’s allowed an ERA of 1.64 while keeping opponents’ batting at .139. His incredibly low WHIP of 0.636 while allowing just four runs continuously earns him more opportunities.
The San Diego rotation ranks sixth in ERA, sixth in hits, tied for fifth in AVG, and eighth in home runs.
SP Blake Snell seems to have returned to the utter dominance that we saw in his time in Tampa Bay. If his 2.85 ERA doesn’t speak for itself, his .199 average against, 132 strikeouts, 71 hits, and 32.4% K-rate would do the trick.
With his contract in San Diego coming to an end after this season, expect Blake Snell to get a large payday when the time comes.
The other contributor–and one that might come as a surprise to many–is SP Michael Wacha. Although the number is hard to compare to Snell, we’ve seen a resurgence from Wacha this year.
He’s allowed 27 earned runs in 85.2 innings pitched, giving him an ERA of 2.84, which leads the Padres rotation. That ERA would rank him seventh in MLB if he qualified.
The Fans Keep Coming
So far in 2023, the Padres have had 1.9 million fans in attendance over their 48 home games, which ranks fourth in MLB. That brings an average of 40,378, which is just 2000 shy of the park’s capacity.
The most fans the stadium has ever seen in a season was in 2004 when Petco Park first opened, welcoming just over 3 million fans.
If San Diego kept this average throughout its last 33 home games, they’d bring in another 1.3 million fans, which would beat the park’s previous record. With all the star players on the roster, there seems to be a correlation to how enticing a ballgame is for fan attendance.
